Dollar hits 5-month top vs Pound and Euro

16 Apr 2024

The Dollar hit a five-month high against Sterling and the Euro on Tuesday, following on from stronger-than-forecast US retail sales boosting Treasury yields.

Monday's data revealed US retail sales increased 0.7% in March, compared to a 0.3% rise forecast by economists polled by Reuters, bolstering expectations the Fed will unlikely rush to cut rates in 2024.

"The US economy continues to grow very solidly at a level which is above the long-term trend and which does support higher US bond yields and which argues against the Fed cutting interest rates," said Kenneth Broux, head of corporate research, FX and Rates at Societe Generale.

As it stands, markets are pricing in a 41% chance the Fed will slash rates in July, compared to around 50% before the data was published, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

Investors will be closely monitoring Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's remarks later on Tuesday for insights. This will be his first commentary since last week's US inflation data surpassed expectations.

At the time of writing, the Euro edged down 0.1% to $1.0615, the weakest since early November as its slump continued following indications last week from the European Central Bank of a rate cut in June.

Meanwhile, Sterling declined to $1.2438 after previously hitting a five-month low of $1.2409, and UK core wage growth recorded its weakest rise since Q3 2022.

This helped the Dollar index, measuring the greenback against major peers, to gain 0.1% to 106.43, the highest seen since 2nd November.

In Japan, the Yen was trading at 154.45 per Dollar at the time of writing, a 34-year low, and near the new resistance level of 155, according to analysts.

As a result, traders are watchful of intervention from Japanese authorities.

Elsewhere, in China, the onshore Yuan declined to 7.2422 per Dollar, its lowest since November, and was last 7.2396 per Dollar. Whereas in the offshore market, the greenback rose 0.2% at 7.2722 Yuan.