Retail sales boost currency value

16 Aug 2019

The EUR/USD pair has oscillated in the 1.1100 region as economists predict a sizeable quantitative easing (QE) by the European Central Bank as well as a broadening in the U.S.-German yield spread. The USD continued to add value due to U.S. retail sales exceeding expectations to calm down concerns revolving on falling into a recession. The pair was last traded at 1.1102 after opening at 1.1107. EUR/USD has had a tough 3 days, as it dropped by 0.38% on Tuesday, 0.29% on Wednesday and 0.28% on Thursday. The losing streak could continue if the U.S. – German bond yield differential grows more than what the ECB estimated. 

Member of the ECB's rate-setting committee, Olli Rehn stated on Thursday that the stimulus package offered could be bigger-than-expected. Following his comments, the German 10-year bond yield dropped by 7bps, reaching a new low of -0.71 and the spread between the U.S. and German 10-year bond yields increased by 8bps. 

Moreover, the Cable continued to increase steadily, giving over the 1.21 mark. The pair found friction against a broad-based USD pullback but was pushed forward by the UK data-backed recovery.  UK retail sales helped the pair to stay stable despite rising political concerns in the UK surrounding a no-deal Brexit. 

In addition, the USD/TRY stayed in the 5.5700 region. Traders are estimating an increase to -1.01% YoY from -1.30% in the Turkish Industrial Production.