USD at its highest since November after US inflation data

11 Apr 2024

The US Dollar was trading around its highest since November against major peers on Thursday, as hotter-than-forecast US inflation data on Wednesday dampened expectations of a rate cut in June.

Investors are now focused on US producer price data and the policy meeting at the European Central Bank (ECB) later on Thursday.

At the time of writing, the Euro was flat at $1.0748, following the 1% decline on Wednesday following the US data. Meanwhile, the Sterling rose 0.18% to $1.2561 after a 1.1% drop the day before, according to Reuters reports.

A shift in ECB rates would catch markets off guard, yet all eyes are on President Christine Lagarde's remarks regarding the speed of reductions. Various hints from policymakers suggest the central bank will initiate cuts during its June meeting.

Simon Harvey, head of FX analysis at Monex Europe, noted that the US inflation data has added complexity to the ECB and other central banks' outlooks. Market reactions to the inflation figures have led to a notable delay in the anticipated timeline for rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.

"The ECB will likely try to be as non-committal as possible about their path after June at today's meeting," Harvey said, going on to add that Europe's economic situation meant the central bank would have to reduce rates more sharply than the Fed in the next few months, which would drive the Euro lower.

In Japan, the yen was flat at the time of writing at 153.26 per dollar, but it was at its weakest since Wednesday, 1990, when the greenback rose almost 1% on the yen.

This left only a slight change for the Dollar index on Thursday at 105.16, after reaching its highest since November in early trade, the Reuters report adds.

As it stands, markets are now pricing in a 17% chance the Fed will cut rates in June, compared to a 50% chance before the CPI data, as per the CME FedWatch tool.